Blog

Introduction

In the bustling streets of New Delhi, leaders from the world’s largest economies converged in early September for the annual G20 summit. Amidst the vibrant discussions and diplomatic dances, something monumental took shape—a united front against climate change. Let’s dive into the heart of the matter and understand how the G20’s decisions set the stage for the upcoming COP28 conference in Dubai.

The New Delhi Declaration: Climate Commitments Unveiled

The G20 leaders, after intense negotiations, inked the New Delhi Declaration, a document with far-reaching implications for the climate crisis. One standout point was the acknowledgment of the hefty financial burden on developing nations, with a call to mobilize a staggering $5.9 trillion annually by 2030. This commitment underscores the gravity of the situation and the global recognition that financial backing is crucial for effective climate action.

Stepping Up: A Pledge to Triple Renewable Energy

In a bid to reshape the energy landscape, the G20 leaders pledged to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. This ambitious goal aims at installing around 11,000 gigawatts of renewable generation, a move that could revolutionize the energy sector. This commitment is not just lip service; it’s a rallying cry to make renewable energy a cornerstone in the fight against climate change.

COP28’s Priority: A Joint Statement from Key Players

Leaders from the European Union, Barbados, Kenya, and the UAE, presiding over COP28, joined forces in a powerful statement. They emphasized the urgency of tripling renewable energy and positioned it as a clear priority for the upcoming climate conference. This united front sends a strong signal that renewable energy is not just an option but a necessity for a sustainable future.

G20’s Achilles Heel: Criticism for Fossil Fuel Language

While the G20 deal garnered praise, it faced criticism for sidestepping a clear stance on phasing out fossil fuels. The focus was solely on unsustainable coal power, leaving a void for addressing the broader issue. This omission stirred controversy, especially in light of the UAE COP28 president’s assertion that phasing out fossil fuels is “inevitable and necessary.” The question looms: can COP28 fill this gap and lead the way?

Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES): Indicators for Success

The C2ES, a key player in climate advocacy, identified high-level indicators for COP28 success. From tripling renewable energy capacity to slashing methane emissions and ensuring universal climate services, these benchmarks set the stage for a comprehensive approach. Success at COP28 hinges on meeting these targets and reshaping the future of global climate action.

The Urgency: A World on Fire

Recent scenes of record heat globally serve as a stark reminder of the urgency of limiting global warming. The 1.5-degree Celsius goal is not just a number; it’s a lifeline to prevent the worst effects of climate change. The world is watching, and the decisions made at COP28 will echo for generations.

IEA’s Global Roadmap: Blueprint for a Sustainable Future

The IEA‘s Global Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050, initially released in May 2021 and slated for an update this year before the COP28 Climate Change Conference, lays out a strategic pathway for the energy sector. This pathway is designed to curtail global warming to 1.5°C. The roadmap emphasizes that, alongside doubling efforts in energy efficiency, a substantial escalation of various clean energy technologies in this decade is imperative. This acceleration is crucial to diminishing the demand for fossil fuels and achieving net-zero emissions within the necessary timeframe.

Among these diverse technologies, the linchpin for achieving the mandated reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2030 is the threefold increase in global installed renewable power capacity by the decade’s end. This pivotal aspect has consistently been a central element in our data and modeling since May 2021. The substantial expansion of renewable capacity on this scale holds the potential to avert approximately 7 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions between 2023 and 2030. To put this into perspective, it is equivalent to eradicating all current CO2 emissions from China’s power sector.

Significant headway has already been achieved, with projections indicating the largest absolute surge in renewable power capacity additions in 2023. Renewables are also well-positioned to encompass all the growth in global electricity demand over the next two years. In light of these developments, at the IEA, we are reinforcing our appeal to governments globally, urging them to commit to tripling renewable capacity by 2030 in anticipation of COP28.

Progress and Challenges: Navigating the Renewable Frontier

The global push for expanding renewable energy capacity has been remarkable in recent years, fueled further by the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This crisis has not only emphasized the climate benefits of renewables but has underscored their crucial role in ensuring energy security.

In 2022, the world witnessed a substantial increase of almost 13% in added renewable power capacity. Projections for 2023 paint an even more promising picture, with an expected one-third surge. This growth is propelled by mounting policy support, heightened fossil fuel prices, and persistent concerns about energy security, particularly driving the adoption of solar PV and wind power. The latest update from the IEA’s Renewable Energy Market, released last month, highlights these trends. Moreover, there’s a possibility that global electricity generation from renewables could surpass coal as early as next year, contingent on weather conditions.

However, despite these advancements, there’s a recognition that more strides are necessary. The IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap, in place since 2021, asserts that achieving net-zero emissions from the energy sector by 2050 hinges on the global commitment to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030.

Tripling capacity at this pace would not only allow for a robust expansion of renewable power generation but would also outstrip the anticipated surge in total electricity demand in the coming years. This surge is anticipated due to the electrification of energy systems, the escalating use of cooling in response to rising temperatures, and the vigorous growth in demand from emerging and developing economies. An additional benefit of this ambitious goal would be a substantial reduction of unabated coal-fired power generation, the primary source of energy-related CO2 emissions, by half between 2022 and 2030.

Sultan Al Jaber’s Call to Action: A Presidential Push for Renewables

COP28 President-elect Sultan Al Jaber has put renewable energy at the forefront, aligning it with the goal of doubling energy efficiency progress. The call is clear: governments need to step up and commit to tripling global renewable capacity by 2030. It’s a call not just for governments but for every individual to be part of the change.

The Global Energy Crisis: A Catalyst for Renewable Resilience

The aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fueled the global energy crisis, shedding light on the security benefits of renewable energy. The spotlight on renewable energy’s climate credentials is brighter than ever. The world is realizing that renewable energy isn’t just a climate solution; it’s a key player in ensuring energy security.

The focal point of a comprehensive Net Zero Roadmap is the swift expansion of renewable energy sources. While this is undeniably crucial, it’s just one puzzle piece in the intricate design required to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

In tandem with the rapid scaling of renewable capacity, there must be a significant acceleration in global progress toward improving energy efficiency—a second pivotal pillar for reducing emissions—between now and 2030. The IEA’s Global Conference on Energy Efficiency, held last month, rallied support from 45 governments, aiming to double the annual progress in energy efficiency from approximately 2% to over 4% by the decade’s end.

The expansion of nuclear power on a global scale is another imperative, with a particular focus on bringing small modular reactors to market. Overcoming recent challenges faced in advanced economies is crucial for the further development of nuclear energy. Simultaneously, the growth of electric vehicles needs to continue at a rapid pace, especially beyond major markets like China, Europe, and the United States. Additionally, integrating low-emission hydrogen and ammonia into power generation can play a pivotal role in reducing emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants.

For the oil and gas industry, a serious commitment to addressing climate change is essential. This commitment includes a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from operations, which currently contribute around 15% of total energy-related emissions globally, between now and 2030. The agenda extends to various other domains, and our updated Net Zero Roadmap will provide further insights into the precise measures required to achieve net-zero status by 2050.

Yet, all advancements in efficiency, nuclear power, hydrogen, and emissions reduction in the oil and gas sector will fall short if the world doesn’t triple its renewable capacity by 2030. This target is not only indispensable but also within reach, and governments must commit to it as they approach COP28 to uphold the critical objective of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Our Planet

As the curtains fall on the G20 summit in India, the stage is set for COP28 in Dubai. The decisions made today will echo through the halls of climate history. The call to triple global renewable capacity is not just a summit agreement; it’s a promise to future generations. The world is at a crossroads, and the path we choose now will determine the fate of our planet.

FAQs: Your Guide to the G20 and Climate Change

Why did the G20 focus on tripling renewable energy capacity?

The G20 recognized the urgency of addressing climate change and saw tripling renewable energy capacity as a practical step to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to a sustainable energy future.

What criticism did the G20 face regarding fossil fuels?

Critics argued that the G20 deal fell short by not explicitly addressing the phasing out of all fossil fuels. The focus was primarily on unsustainable coal power, leaving a gap in broader fossil fuel discussions.

How does the IEA’s Global Roadmap contribute to climate goals?

The IEA’s Global Roadmap outlines a path to limit global warming by tripling the global installed capacity of renewable energy. This ambitious plan aims to avoid billions of tons of CO2 emissions by 2030.

Why is COP28 crucial for climate action?

COP28 is a pivotal moment for climate action, setting the stage for global agreements and commitments. The decisions made at COP28 will shape the trajectory of climate efforts and influence international policies.

What role does Sultan Al Jaber play in promoting renewable energy?

As the COP28 President-elect, Sultan Al Jaber has prioritized renewable energy, urging governments to commit to tripling global renewable capacity by 2030. His leadership underscores the significance of renewable energy in combating climate change.